3061 Talon Cir

Auburn Hills, MI 48360

$370,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,778 sqft · Built 1997 · Condo · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,304/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$712
• HOA: −$80
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $-122/mo
• Annual: $-1,461/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $103,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (10.7% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $330k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#151 in MI, #3,766 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask is 15645% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $246k; list at $370k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.3% in Auburn Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.