9507 N Osage Dr

Sperry, OK 74073

$200,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,649/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $124/mo
• Annual: $1,493/yr
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.67%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.6% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#571 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sperry (rural): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #114 of 270 in OK (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sperry Es (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #247 of 845 statewide, top 30%, 520 students, 0% FRL); Sperry Ms (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #193 of 345 statewide, top 60%, 232 students, 0% FRL); Sperry Hs (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #274 of 447 statewide, top 66%, 329 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 2,818 units permitted in Tulsa County in 2024 (518 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tulsa County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.