9507 N Osage Dr · Sperry, OK 74073

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2010 1.19 ac lot Est $244k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

1.19 acres with a 50 x 60 insulated shop w/ electric. Many updates, including new carpet, paint, and a covered deck. etc. Small dry pond. Mature trees, partially fenced.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Partially fenced
• Insulated shop

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• INSULATED SHOP
• COVERED DECK
• MATURE TREES
• PARTIALLY FENCED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Horses allowed on the property
• HOA & community: Community marina

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors; No safety shelter
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story manufactured home (single wide); Faces west; Tie-down foundation
• Construction: Metal roof; Manufactured construction with Masonite and wood siding; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Satellite dish; Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch; Workshop; Full chain-link fencing; Mature trees; Less than 10 miles to water (Skiatook Lake)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Disposal; Plumbed for ice maker; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with private bath and walk-in closet (first floor); Two additional bedrooms (first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with bathtub and separate shower (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Aluminum window frames; Storm doors; Laminate counters; Ceiling fans; Electric oven/range connections
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (inside, first floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#571 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sperry (rural): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #114 of 270 in OK (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sperry Es (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #247 of 845 statewide, top 30%, 520 students, 0% FRL); Sperry Ms (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #193 of 345 statewide, top 60%, 232 students, 0% FRL); Sperry Hs (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #274 of 447 statewide, top 66%, 329 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 2,818 units permitted in Tulsa County in 2024 (518 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Tulsa County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,868 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.67%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,500
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9564 N Osage Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+1%)	23mo	$250,000	$164	76
405 S 4th St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-12%)	2mo	$195,000	$147	68
539 W Cherokee St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-12%)	11mo	$215,000	$163	67
217 S Cincinnati Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+8%)	9mo	$220,000	$136	53
9890 N Osage Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,357 (-10%)	18mo	$229,500	$169	53
9545 N Cincinnati St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,692 (+13%)	1mo	$282,500	$167	52
41 W Ash Pl S	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-10%)	22mo	$155,000	$115	42
9381 Crestwood Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+12%)	15mo	$250,000	$149	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $89,237
• Equity at exit: $150,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $252,785
• Equity at exit: $298,572

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74073

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $551/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,491

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $181	+0% $124	+5% $68	+10% $11
Rent	-10% $-6	-5% $59	+0% $124	+5% $190	+10% $255
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $175	base $124	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $551 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,800 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,249/yr (+$104/mo · 226.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$551
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$469
• After-tax cash flow: $1,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sperry
• NCES district ID: 4028170
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,187
• Composite: 21.01/100
• National rank: #8455
• State rank: #114 of 270 in OK

Livability — Sperry

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #23756

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sperry, OK
• Population (ZIP): 5,610

Population outlook (Tulsa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 723,846 people
• By 2030: 766,033 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 851,386 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 938,389 · +29.6%
• By 2075: 1,166,011 · +61.1%
• By 2100: 1,350,277 · +86.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 16% Native American 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulsa

• 2024 margin: R (+15.2) · D 41.3% · R 56.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.2pp toward D · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+22.9 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.92%
• Current HPI: 268.133
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-03-27 Listed $200,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $551 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.