305 W Lincoln St

Harrisburg, IL 62946

$56,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 877 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 145 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $312/mo
• Annual: $3,746/yr
• Cap rate: 12.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.89%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $15,680

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $56k).
• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $387 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#309 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, commute F, employment F.
• Harrisburg CUSD 3 (town): math 5% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #521 of 620 in IL (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
• Saline County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $56k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 5.1% in Harrisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.