305 W Lincoln St · Harrisburg, IL 62946

$56,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 877 sqft · SingleFamily · 143 Days on market

Built 1940 3,960 sqft lot $64/sqft · 20% above area Est $47k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready 2 bedroom 1 bath home. Step inside from the charming front porch into the large living room. Open concept living, dining and kitchen. The kitchen has new GE appliances that pass with sale. 2 bedrooms with a shared full bathroom inbetween. The laundry room is located at the back of the home with access to the fenced in back yard. The back yard also has a patio and a storage shed.

Key facts

• Charming front porch
• New ge appliances
• Large living room

Tags

• CHARMING FRONT PORCH
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• NEW GE APPLIANCES
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• PATIO
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 5.1% in Harrisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#309 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, commute F, employment F.
• Harrisburg CUSD 3 (town): math 5% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #521 of 620 in IL (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $387 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saline County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $56k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.89%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,682
• List price: $56,000
• Delta: 19.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
600 W Parish St	0.28mi	2/1.0	924 (+5%)	11mo	$15,000	$16	69
1111 Roosevelt St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	858 (-2%)	0mo	$37,000	$43	64
718 W Raymond St	0.39mi	2/1.0	825 (-6%)	12mo	$97,000	$118	62
716 W Poplar St	0.51mi	2/1.0	800 (-9%)	4mo	$53,000	$66	58
910 S Webster St	0.44mi	2/1.5	936 (+7%)	11mo	$75,000	$80	57
825 W Sloan St	0.52mi	2/1.0	960 (+10%)	12mo	$37,500	$39	50
415 W Church St	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+15%)	17mo	$42,500	$42	50
415 W Church St	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+15%)	17mo	$42,500	$42	50
1020 S Webster St	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+14%)	8mo	$54,000	$54	46
701 W Church St	0.40mi	2/1.5	1,008 (+15%)	14mo	$77,900	$77	43
1116 S Land St St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	990 (+13%)	4mo	$80,000	$81	39
1221 S Jackson St	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+14%)	14mo	$149,900	$150	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $10,806
• Equity at exit: $8,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $34,997
• Equity at exit: $4,842

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62946

• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $508/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $455

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
400 W Small St Harrisburg, IL	2.0	1.0	764	$850	$1.11	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $56,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $56,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $56,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   status $56,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $56,000 Under Contract 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $56,000 Under Contract 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $56,000 Under Contract 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $56,000 Under Contract 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $56,000 Under Contract 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $56,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $56,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $56,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $56,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $56,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $56,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $56,000 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    price $56,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Move in ready 2 bedroom 1 bath home. Step inside from the charming front porch into the large living room. Open concept living, dining and kitchen. The kitchen has new GE appliances that pass with sale. 2 bedrooms with a shared full bathroom inbetween. The laundry room is located at the back of the home with access to the fenced in back yard. The back yard also has a patio and a storage shed.

18. 2026-03-05
    price $60,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Move in ready 2 bedroom 1 bath home. Step inside from the charming front porch into the large living room. Open concept living, dining and kitchen. The kitchen has new GE appliances that pass with sale. 2 bedrooms with a shared full bathroom inbetween. The laundry room is located at the back of the home with access to the fenced in back yard. The back yard also has a patio and a storage shed.

19. 2026-01-28
    historical
20. 2026-01-16
    status Active
21. 2026-01-14
    historical
22. 2026-01-08
    status Active
23. 2026-01-06
    historical
24. 2026-01-05
    historical
25. 2025-09-06
    listed Active
26. 2025-09-05
    listed $63,000 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Move in ready 2 bedroom 1 bath home. Step inside from the charming front porch into the large living room. Open concept living, dining and kitchen. The kitchen has new GE appliances that pass with sale. 2 bedrooms with a shared full bathroom inbetween. The laundry room is located at the back of the home with access to the fenced in back yard. The back yard also has a patio and a storage shed.

27. 2023-06-29
    soldstatus $35,000
28. 2023-06-29
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed
29. 2023-06-13
    status Pending
30. 2022-10-28
    status Active
31. 2022-10-14
    historical Under Contract
32. 2022-08-05
    price $40,000
33. 2022-04-20
    listed $40,000
34. 2022-04-20
    listed $42,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $508 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $889 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$382/yr (+$32/mo · 75.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$508
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $3,015
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$723
• After-tax cash flow: $3,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrisburg CUSD 3
• NCES district ID: 1718270
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,717
• Composite: 12.61/100
• National rank: #9613
• State rank: #521 of 620 in IL

Livability — Harrisburg

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6073

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harrisburg, IL
• Population (ZIP): 11,465

Population outlook (Saline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,915 people
• By 2030: 23,262 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 21,775 · -8.9%
• By 2050: 20,098 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 15,234 · -36.3%
• By 2100: 10,302 · -56.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Saline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.8% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.1pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.9 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.20%
• Current HPI: 102.6962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+40.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $56,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $60,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-06 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Listed $63,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-29 Sold (MLS) $35,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-29 Sold (MLS) $35,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-13 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-28 Relisted — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-14 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-05 Price Changed $40,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-20 Listed $42,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-20 Listed $40,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $508 · +346.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.