210-16 Goodfellow Rd

Fulton, NY 13069

$122,999B+

5 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,751/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $534/mo
• Annual: $6,402/yr
• Cap rate: 11.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.59%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $34,440

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $123k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($850 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#907 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Mexico Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #540 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palermo Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 223 students, 56% FRL); Mexico Middle School (math 18% / reading 30%, grade F, #640 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 614 students, 59% FRL); Mexico High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 577 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 41% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 5.2% in Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant moss and potential algae growth on the roof.
• Major: exterior siding — Peeling paint and general lack of maintenance on the exterior siding.
• Major: foundation — General lack of maintenance on the foundation.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of landscaping.
• Major: interior walls/paint — No interior walls or paint are visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.
• Major: bathrooms — No bathrooms are visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.