210-16 Goodfellow Rd · Fulton, NY 13069

$122,999

5 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 1890 Poor condition 4.34 ac lot $89/sqft · 66% below area ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Bring your vision to life with this charming 1890 farmhouse set on nearly 22 picturesque acres in Palermo. The property features a small pond, open land, and endless potential for your country retreat, hobby farm, or private homestead. The farmhouse has already been started with important updates including a new roof and severable windows. Inside, it has been prepped for new mechanicals and finishes, offering the perfect blank canvas for someone ready to complete the renovations and make it their own.

Key facts

• Open land
• Small pond
• Historic character

Tags

• 1890 FARMHOUSE
• SMALL POND
• OPEN LAND
• NEW ROOF
• HISTORIC CHARACTER
• ENDLESS POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $123k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 5.2% in Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#907 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Mexico Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #540 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palermo Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 223 students, 56% FRL); Mexico Middle School (math 18% / reading 30%, grade F, #640 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 614 students, 59% FRL); Mexico High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 577 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 41% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($850 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,309 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.59%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,695
• List price: $122,999
• Delta: -66.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5264 State Route 49	1.84mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,188 (-14%)	9mo	$149,900	$126	26
5245 State Route 49	1.85mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,344 (-3%)	22mo	$242,400	$180	26
1750 State Route 264	1.23mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,104 (-20%)	0mo	$245,000	$222	24
1822 County Route 6 Lot E4 Lot E4	2.15mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,120 (-19%)	3mo	$40,000	$36	21
179 County Route 35	1.73mi	3/1.0 (-2)	1,621 (+17%)	12mo	$210,000	$130	18
887 Red School House Rd	1.22mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,674 (+21%)	23mo	$224,900	$134	14
815 Red School House Rd	0.80mi	3/1.5 (-2)	1,576 (+14%)	23mo	$72,000	$46	9
4219 State Route 3	1.66mi	3/1.5 (-2)	1,144 (-18%)	24mo	$176,500	$154	6
3245 State Route 3	2.05mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,064 (-23%)	24mo	$169,000	$159	4
1750 264	1.23mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,104 (-20%)	26mo	$110,000	$100	4
3756 State Route 3	0.92mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,692 (+22%)	29mo	$298,900	$177	4
1635 County Route 45	1.26mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,798 (+30%)	33mo	$350,000	$195	4

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $75,045
• Equity at exit: $83,200

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $192,984
• Equity at exit: $156,234

Cash invested: $34,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $124,900 ($90/sqft)
• Median days on market: 43 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +193.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 13069

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$154 /mo · $1,845/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,076

Max offer price $122,999

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $619	-5% $576	+0% $534	+5% $491	+10% $449
Rent	-10% $395	-5% $464	+0% $534	+5% $603	+10% $672
Rate	-1.0pp $595	-0.5pp $565	base $534	+0.5pp $502	+1.0pp $469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,750
• Closing costs: $3,690
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-25
   days on market $122,999 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-23
   days on market $122,999 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-22
   days on market $122,999 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,999 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,999 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,999 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,999 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $122,999 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,999 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $122,999 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $122,999 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $122,999 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $122,999 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-01-21
    status Pending
15. 2026-01-06
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2025-12-26
    listed $122,999 Active
17. 2025-12-25
    historical
18. 2025-12-15
    price $124,999
19. 2025-12-03
    price $129,999
20. 2025-11-28
    price $139,999
21. 2025-11-06
    price $149,999
22. 2025-11-03
    price $159,999
23. 2025-10-31
    price $169,999
24. 2025-10-17
    price $171,999
25. 2025-10-12
    price $179,999
26. 2025-10-09
    price $189,999
27. 2025-09-26
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,890
• − Property taxes: −$1,845
• − Insurance: −$615
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$3,578
• Taxable income: $4,725
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,134
• After-tax cash flow: $5,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $69,300–$124,740 screening

This 1890 farmhouse requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior siding and paint, and landscaping. Significant updates would be needed to improve its condition and value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $40,000–$120,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage and missing shingles.
• Major Windows (windows) — The windows are boarded up, indicating they are not functioning and likely need replacement.
• Major Electrical (electrical) — The house is boarded up, which could indicate electrical issues or a lack of power.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — The exterior of the house is in poor condition, with boarded-up windows and a boarded-up door.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant moss and potential algae growth on the roof.
• Major exterior siding — Peeling paint and general lack of maintenance on the exterior siding.
• Major foundation — General lack of maintenance on the foundation.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of landscaping.
• Major interior walls/paint — No interior walls or paint are visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.
• Major bathrooms — No bathrooms are visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.
• Major kitchen — No kitchen is visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.
• Major systems — No systems are visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both new roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both exterior siding and paint — New siding and paint would improve the home's curb appeal and exterior condition. ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping would enhance the home's curb appeal and overall aesthetic. ↑
• Both interior walls and paint — New interior walls and paint would improve the home's interior condition and appearance. ↑
• Both bathrooms — Renovated bathrooms would improve the home's functionality and appearance. ↑
• Both kitchen — A new kitchen would improve the home's functionality and appearance. ↑
• Both systems — Upgraded systems would improve the home's functionality and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Palermo Elementary School F NY #1,786/2,108 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Mexico Middle School F NY #640/729 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Mexico High School A NY #311/1,100 Nat'l #564/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexico Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,635
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5691
• State rank: #540 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Fulton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #17723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oswego · 114,465 people
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 23,176
• Household income: $63,156
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Current HPI: 304.443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-38.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-06 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-12-26 Listed $122,999 CNYIS
• 2025-12-25 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $124,999 CNYIS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $129,999 CNYIS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $139,999 CNYIS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $149,999 CNYIS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $159,999 CNYIS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $169,999 CNYIS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $171,999 CNYIS
• 2025-10-12 Price Changed $179,999 CNYIS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $189,999 CNYIS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $199,000 CNYIS