4820 County Road 45

Danbury, TX 77515

$134,497C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 134 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,667/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$705
• Tax + insurance: −$888
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-277/mo
• Annual: $-3,325/yr
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $37,659

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (27.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $930 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#770 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Danbury ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 932 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.