4820 County Road 45 · Danbury, TX 77515

$134,497

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1986 6.86 ac lot $92/sqft · 73% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A rare chance to own nearly seven acres of land offering privacy, space, and endless potential. Whether you're dreaming of building a custom home, creating a private retreat, or investing in a large parcel with room to grow, this property delivers a blank canvas in a natural setting. There is an older house currently on the property, but it is not safe to enter. Access is strictly enter at your own risk.

Key facts

• Seven acres of land
• Natural setting
• 6.86 acre lot

Tags

• SEVEN ACRES OF LAND
• NATURAL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (27.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#770 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Danbury ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 921 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $930 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,412 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $490,727
• List price: $134,497
• Delta: -72.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4820 County Road 45	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,456 (0%)	0mo	$134,497	$92	98

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-39,008
• Equity at exit: $20,054

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-54,931
• Equity at exit: $11,629

Cash invested: $37,659 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77515

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 921
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,667 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$705
• Tax from tax record: −$406 /mo · $4,871/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,017

Max offer price $97,412

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-201	-5% $-239	+0% $-277	+5% $-315	+10% $-353
Rent	-10% $-409	-5% $-343	+0% $-277	+5% $-211	+10% $-145
Rate	-1.0pp $-209	-0.5pp $-243	base $-277	+0.5pp $-312	+1.0pp $-347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,624
• Closing costs: $4,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,497 Pending 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,497 Pending 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,497 Pending 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,497 Pending 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,497 Pending 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $134,497 Pending 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $134,497 Pending 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $134,497 Pending 122 DOM
9. 2026-04-29
   price $159,497 409-char remark

   Show marketing remark (409 chars)

   A rare chance to own nearly seven acres of land offering privacy, space, and endless potential. Whether you're dreaming of building a custom home, creating a private retreat, or investing in a large parcel with room to grow, this property delivers a blank canvas in a natural setting. There is an older house currently on the property, but it is not safe to enter. Access is strictly enter at your own risk.

10. 2026-04-06
    price $169,497 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    A rare chance to own nearly seven acres of land offering privacy, space, and endless potential. Whether you're dreaming of building a custom home, creating a private retreat, or investing in a large parcel with room to grow, this property delivers a blank canvas in a natural setting. There is an older house currently on the property, but it is not safe to enter. Access is strictly enter at your own risk.

11. 2026-03-23
    price $179,497 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    A rare chance to own nearly seven acres of land offering privacy, space, and endless potential. Whether you're dreaming of building a custom home, creating a private retreat, or investing in a large parcel with room to grow, this property delivers a blank canvas in a natural setting. There is an older house currently on the property, but it is not safe to enter. Access is strictly enter at your own risk.

12. 2026-03-12
    price $199,497 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    A rare chance to own nearly seven acres of land offering privacy, space, and endless potential. Whether you're dreaming of building a custom home, creating a private retreat, or investing in a large parcel with room to grow, this property delivers a blank canvas in a natural setting. There is an older house currently on the property, but it is not safe to enter. Access is strictly enter at your own risk.

13. 2026-02-24
    price $209,497 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    A rare chance to own nearly seven acres of land offering privacy, space, and endless potential. Whether you're dreaming of building a custom home, creating a private retreat, or investing in a large parcel with room to grow, this property delivers a blank canvas in a natural setting. There is an older house currently on the property, but it is not safe to enter. Access is strictly enter at your own risk.

14. 2026-01-28
    listed $229,497 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    A rare chance to own nearly seven acres of land offering privacy, space, and endless potential. Whether you're dreaming of building a custom home, creating a private retreat, or investing in a large parcel with room to grow, this property delivers a blank canvas in a natural setting. There is an older house currently on the property, but it is not safe to enter. Access is strictly enter at your own risk.

15. 2008-12-17
    soldstatus
16. 2008-10-02
    historical
17. 2007-11-27
    listed $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,871 · $406/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,871 · $406/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,534
• − Property taxes: −$4,871
• − Insurance: −$5,791
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,600
• − Management: −$1,600
• − Depreciation: −$3,913
• Taxable loss: −$5,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,274
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816290
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $69,969
• Composite: 37.62/100
• National rank: #4379
• State rank: #285 of 826 in TX

Livability — Danbury

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #770
• US rank: #14049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,088
• Household income: $88,787
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 785.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.59%
• Current HPI: 288.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $159,497 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $169,497 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $179,497 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $199,497 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $209,497 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $229,497 HARMLS
• 2008-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-10-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-11-27 Listed $149,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,871 · -14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.