Texas Cali Plan

Nolanville, TX 76559

$277,990D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,796 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,119/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,679
• Tax + insurance: −$534
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-538/mo
• Annual: $-6,457/yr
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.20%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $89,635

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-538 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (23.8% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $212k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $119 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#176 in TX, #4,655 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard E Cavazos El (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 607 students, 66% FRL); Rancier Middle (math 24% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 722 students, 81% FRL); Killeen H S (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,076 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 47% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.5% in Nolanville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.