Texas Cali Plan · Nolanville, TX 76559

$277,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,796 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into the incredible Texas Cali floorplan at Wildwood Estates in Nolanville, Texas. The 4 bedroom, 2-bathroom has a spacious 1,796 approximate square footage that is perfect as your new home. Entertain in the large, open space living room or gather in the beautifully designed kitchen. The kitchen features flat panel birch cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Or enjoy nature from under the backyard covered patio. You'll also find three cozy carpeted secondary bedrooms with easy access to the secondary bathroom. The laundry room is also centrally located for convenience. Retreat to the luxurious primary bedroom, where you'll find the attached primary bathroom wi

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Granite countertops
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• BACKYARD COVERED PATIO
• FLAT PANEL BIRCH CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ATTACHED PRIMARY BATHROOM
• DOUBLE VANITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 202 Morgans Cir, Nolanville TX 76559; Listing status: Active; Listing last modified 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $277,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan; Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1796

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan: Texas Cali

🏗️ New construction. The $277,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,711.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in Nolanville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#176 in TX, #4,655 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard E Cavazos El (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 607 students, 66% FRL); Rancier Middle (math 24% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 722 students, 81% FRL); Killeen H S (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,076 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 47% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $117 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($270k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,928 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.75%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,711
• List price: $277,990
• Delta: -11.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Sugar Maple Ct	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,978 (+10%)	6mo	$315,000	$159	67
106 Black Gum Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-8%)	7mo	$250,000	$151	60
905 N 1st St	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,921 (+7%)	4mo	$453,000	$236	55
810 Freedom Cir	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,974 (+10%)	21mo	$325,000	$165	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-40,045
• Equity at exit: $91,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-33,460
• Equity at exit: $110,663

Cash invested: $87,839 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76559

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,119 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,645
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,706/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,744

Max offer price $242,264

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-277	-5% $-385	+0% $-494	+5% $-602	+10% $-711
Rent	-10% $-661	-5% $-577	+0% $-494	+5% $-410	+10% $-326
Rate	-1.0pp $-336	-0.5pp $-414	base $-494	+0.5pp $-575	+1.0pp $-658

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,428
• Closing costs: $9,411
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 Slippery Elm Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.5	2076	$2,250	$1.08	15d	1	0.21mi
854 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$1,901	$0.94	45d	1	0.39mi
810 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1974	$3,895	$1.97	15d	1	0.40mi
870 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2191	$2,223	$1.01	23d	1	0.40mi
853 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,073	$1.03	15d	1	0.43mi
605 Old Glory Rd Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,073	$1.03	25d	1	0.43mi
408 W St John Ave Apt A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,100	$0.88	45d	1	0.47mi
202 East Avenue H Unit H Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,550	$1.12	25d	1	0.88mi
310 10th St Unit B Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,095	$0.85	45d	1	1.04mi
406 Diana Ln Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,600	$0.99	45d	1	1.09mi
308 Cedar Ridge Dr Unit A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2562	$1,050	$0.41	15d	1	1.09mi
1602 Old Nolanville Rd Unit B Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,350	$1.06	25d	1	1.17mi
1806 Iron Jacket Trl Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	2178	$2,345	$1.08	25d	1	1.21mi
1804 Iron Jacket Trl Harker Heights, TX	4.0	3.0	2587	$2,395	$0.93	45d	1	1.21mi
2003 Renea Cir Harker Heights, TX	5.0	2.5	1985	$2,200	$1.11	25d	1	1.25mi
1805 Diana Ln Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1732	$1,595	$0.92	45d	1	1.28mi
7026 Chimney Hill Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.5	2041	$2,200	$1.08	25d	1	1.29mi
106 Cedar Ridge Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$1,695	$0.94	15d	1	1.30mi
707 End O Trl Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,850	$1.23	15d	1	1.34mi
1901 Horatio St Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1945	$2,050	$1.05	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $277,990 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $277,990 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $277,990 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,990 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,990 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $277,990 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,990 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $277,990 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,990 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $277,990 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $277,990 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $277,990 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,990 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $277,990 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,990 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $277,990 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    listed $277,990 Active 1164-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,573
• − Property taxes: −$4,706
• − Insurance: −$1,569
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − Depreciation: −$9,126
• Taxable loss: −$11,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,787
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It has a good layout and features that would appeal to both buyers and renters. Minor updates such as painting and replacing carpet can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace carpet in secondary bedrooms — Carpet can be worn and replacing it improves comfort and appearance.
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in secondary bedrooms — Carpet can be worn and replacing it improves comfort and appearance. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nolanville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #176
• US rank: #4655

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nolanville, TX
• City population: 6,896
• Population (ZIP): 6,896

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 170.1375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B