87 Rayco Ranch Estates Dr

Thayne, WY 83127

$1,395,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,408 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,522/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,316
• Tax + insurance: −$1,070
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $-7,183/mo
• Annual: $-86,198/yr
• Cap rate: 0.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -22.07%
• DSCR: 0.02
• 1% rule: 0.11%
• Cash to close: $390,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-86k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (91.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (89.1% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $126k (91.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $149k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $140k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in WY, #2,755 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln County School District #2 (rural): math 57% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #7 of 41 in WY (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Thayne Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #78 of 151 statewide, top 56%, 378 students, 21% FRL); Star Valley Middle School (math 55% / reading 69%, grade B+, #14 of 55 statewide, top 28%, 455 students, 16% FRL); Star Valley High School (math 40% / reading 68%, grade C-, #24 of 75 statewide, top 35%, 891 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 220 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$240k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.