87 Rayco Ranch Estates Dr · Thayne, WY 83127

$1,395,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2005 4.86 ac lot $409/sqft · 37% below area Est $2500k · 44% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Large windows
• Natural light

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED GUEST CABIN
• JACUZZI SPA
• STABLE
• EXPANSIVE LOT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LARGE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee; Located in Rayco Ranch Estates

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener; Gravel parking areas
• Utilities: Private well water; Electric on property; Septic system
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built area includes finished above-grade space
• Exterior features: Deck and porch; Fenced yard; On waterfront (pond); Storage building; Gazebo; Guest house; Landscaped; Corner lot; Gravel road/drive

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Wet bar; High-speed internet available; Furnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-86k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (91.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (89.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (91.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in WY, #2,755 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln County School District #2 (rural): math 57% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #7 of 41 in WY (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Thayne Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #78 of 151 statewide, top 56%, 378 students, 21% FRL); Star Valley Middle School (math 55% / reading 69%, grade B+, #14 of 55 statewide, top 28%, 455 students, 16% FRL); Star Valley High School (math 40% / reading 68%, grade C-, #24 of 75 statewide, top 35%, 891 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 220 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $149k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $140k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lincoln County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$240k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $126,064 (91.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.11% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -22.07%
• DSCR: 0.02
• GRM: 76.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,500,000
• List price: $1,395,000
• Delta: -34.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $301,506
• Equity at exit: $1,256,727

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $1,246,171
• Equity at exit: $2,710,178

Cash invested: $390,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83127

• Home prices YoY: 32.4%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 76.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,522 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,316
• Tax from tax record: −$488 /mo · $5,861/yr
• Insurance: −$581
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $-7,183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,614

Max offer price $126,064

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-6,393	-5% $-6,788	+0% $-7,183	+5% $-7,578	+10% $-7,973
Rent	-10% $-7,303	-5% $-7,243	+0% $-7,183	+5% $-7,123	+10% $-7,063
Rate	-1.0pp $-6,481	-0.5pp $-6,828	base $-7,183	+0.5pp $-7,545	+1.0pp $-7,912

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $348,750
• Closing costs: $41,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on marketlisting id $1,395,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 380 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 379 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 378 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 376 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 375 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 372 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 371 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 370 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 368 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 366 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 365 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 364 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 363 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 362 DOM
16. 2026-03-12
    price $1,650,000 1426-char remark
17. 2025-06-03
    listed $1,800,000 Active 1426-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,861 · $488/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,510 · $709/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,649/yr (+$221/mo · 45.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$78,142
• − Property taxes: −$5,861
• − Insurance: −$6,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,461
• − Management: −$1,461
• − Depreciation: −$40,582
• Taxable loss: −$116,222
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27,893
• After-tax cash flow: $-58,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln County School District #2
• NCES district ID: 5604060
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,907
• Composite: 53.84/100
• National rank: #1413
• State rank: #7 of 41 in WY

Livability — Thayne

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,726
• Population (ZIP): 3,726

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,890 people
• By 2030: 20,275 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 20,691 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 20,640 · +3.8%
• By 2075: 20,008 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 18,122 · -8.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.3) · D 15.1% · R 83.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.4pp · 2024: -68.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.3 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+67.6 2012: R+68.3 2008: R+54.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 78.23%
• Current HPI: 319.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-22.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $1,395,000 TBOR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $1,650,000 TBOR
• 2025-06-03 Listed $1,800,000 TBOR

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,861 · -21.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.