4550 N Flowing Wells Rd #189

Flowing Wells, AZ 85705

$64,900C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,083/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $407/mo
• Annual: $4,887/yr
• Cap rate: 13.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.89%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $18,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Homer Davis Elementary School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #664 of 1,109 statewide, top 60%, 411 students, 86% FRL); Flowing Wells High School (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #208 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 1,694 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 24% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Amphitheater Unified District (4406) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 224 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.9% in Flowing Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: bathroom cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor: HVAC units — visible but likely outdated