4550 N Flowing Wells Rd #189 · Flowing Wells, AZ 85705

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 111 Days on market

Built 1975 Fair condition 4,000 sqft lot $32/sqft · 79% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a lake view home in desirable Swan Lake Estates. Enjoy peaceful water views and the ability to fish right around the corner. This home offers solid potential and is ready for your personal updates and cosmetic refresh. Gated community amenities include pickleball, horseshoes, bocce ball, shuffleboard, spa, two pools, billiards, library, two clubhouses, and an exercise room. Lot rent covers water, sewer, and trash. Convenient central Tucson location near restaurants, shopping, medical services, Tucson Mall, and the Auto Mall. Ideal for snowbirds or anyone seeking an active, low-maintenance lifestyle with beautiful lake views.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Exercise room
• Lake view

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• GATED COMMUNITY
• EXERCISE ROOM
• CENTRAL TUCSON LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $828 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.2% vs local median 6.1% in Flowing Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,398/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 4240% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.97%
• DSCR: 4.96
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,000
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -79.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4550 N Flowing Wls #170	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+12%)	3mo	$114,000	$82	78
4550 N Flowing Wells Rd #279	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	15mo	$65,000	$54	75
4602 N Camino Aire Fresco	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (-1%)	10mo	$220,005	$179	71
4719 N Camino Feliz	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,184 (-5%)	3mo	$190,000	$160	69
1225 W Allegheny St	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,074 (-14%)	5mo	$145,000	$135	66
917 W Siglo Pl	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	1mo	$235,000	$175	55
4452 N Obetka Ave	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,079 (-14%)	5mo	$87,000	$81	50
1719 W Seabrooke Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	5mo	$219,500	$163	47
1594 W Seabrooke Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+3%)	24mo	$224,000	$175	47
1629 W Ruth St	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,077 (-14%)	5mo	$205,000	$190	45
1717 W Reina Cir	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	21mo	$130,000	$116	38
1687 W Seabrooke Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	20mo	$215,000	$160	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $42,616
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.12×
• Total profit: $90,757
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85705

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $828

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $856	-5% $842	+0% $828	+5% $815	+10% $801
Rent	-10% $718	-5% $773	+0% $828	+5% $884	+10% $939
Rate	-1.0pp $848	-0.5pp $838	base $828	+0.5pp $818	+1.0pp $807

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1326 W Hadley St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	900	$725	$0.81	4d	1	0.32mi
4751 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	44d	1	0.36mi
4111 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1131	$1,625	$1.44	24d	3	0.52mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 14 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1187	$2,450	$2.06	2d	1	0.63mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 7 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1026	$2,200	$2.14	21d	1	0.63mi
1100 W River Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1187	$2,250	$1.90	2d	1	0.64mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-01 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	44d	1	0.68mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	4d	1	0.68mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-04 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	17d	1	0.68mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1215-11 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	4d	1	0.68mi
4030 N Fairview Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	44d	1	0.71mi
1355 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	627	$1,084	$1.73	44d	4	0.72mi
5100 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	938	$1,408	$1.50	44d	1	0.72mi
5021 N Kevy Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	44d	1	0.74mi
1501 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	44d	1	0.75mi
4213 N Romero Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,045	$1.27	44d	5	0.80mi
1865 W La Osa St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,450	$1.77	44d	1	0.81mi
5077 N Fortune Teller Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1370	$1,875	$1.37	18d	1	0.85mi
4861 N River Vista Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,500	$1.31	4d	1	1.04mi
5132 Prairie Clover Trl Tucson, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1604	$1,897	$1.18	2d	13	1.06mi
822 W Thurber Rd Unit B Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	44d	1	1.11mi
4190 N Western Winds Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	918	$1,349	$1.47	44d	1	1.12mi
4190 N Western Winds Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	918	$1,349	$1.47	24d	1	1.12mi
115 W Limberlost Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,350	$1.67	24d	1	1.19mi
1700 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	618	$1,099	$1.78	2d	25	1.19mi
557 W Thurber Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	44d	3	1.22mi
570 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$975	$1.24	44d	13	1.27mi
331 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	850	$1,082	$1.27	12d	2	1.29mi
60 W Stone Loop Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	588	$1,395	$2.37	3d	46	1.31mi
311 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	22d	1	1.33mi
1448 W Kilburn St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	44d	1	1.33mi
1925 W River Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$1,856	$1.77	2d	32	1.33mi
3985 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$1,075	$1.72	17d	21	1.36mi
3985 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$1,280	$2.05	44d	1	1.36mi
3985 N Stone Ave Unit 248 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$979	$1.40	12d	1	1.37mi
1435 W Kilburn St Apt 2102 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1202	$1,495	$1.24	44d	1	1.37mi
156 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,535	$1.32	44d	1	1.39mi
5416 N Bramble Brook Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,850	$1.25	4d	1	1.43mi
269 E Calle Arizona Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	4d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-02-28
    listed $39,900 Active 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a lake view home in desirable Swan Lake Estates. Enjoy peaceful water views and the ability to fish right around the corner. This home offers solid potential and is ready for your personal updates and cosmetic refresh. Gated community amenities include pickleball, horseshoes, bocce ball, shuffleboard, spa, two pools, billiards, library, two clubhouses, and an exercise room. Lot rent covers water, sewer, and trash. Convenient central Tucson location near restaurants, shopping, medical services, Tucson Mall, and the Auto Mall. Ideal for snowbirds or anyone seeking an active, low-maintenance lifestyle with beautiful lake views.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,894
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,375
• After-tax cash flow: $7,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, paint interior walls, and replace carpeting and windows. These updates would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor HVAC units — visible but likely outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers and renters
• Both update bathroom cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpeting with hardwood or tile — new flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both repair/replace windows — new windows would improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
HVAC units · visible but likely outdated	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both update bathroom cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeting with hardwood or tile — new flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both repair/replace windows — new windows would improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flowing Wells

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5288

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flowing Wells, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,700
• Household income: $37,194
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4240.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.31%
• Current HPI: 283.0647
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Listed $39,900 MLSSAZ