41618 N Anthem Ridge Dr

Anthem, AZ 85086

$775,000D-

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,290 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 281 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,536/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,064
• Tax + insurance: −$721
• HOA: −$553
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,162
• Net cashflow: $-965/mo
• Annual: $-11,579/yr
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.34%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $217,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $775k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-965 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $605k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $554k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($682k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $554k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#98 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Diamond Canyon School (math 61% / reading 71%, grade B+, #82 of 1,109 statewide, top 8%, 807 students, 16% FRL); Boulder Creek High School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #55 of 381 statewide, top 14%, 2,375 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $125k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $367k; list at $775k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.7% in Anthem — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $5,536/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 724% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.