4000 Elton Rd

University of Pittsburgh Johnstown, PA 15904

$185,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,487/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-33/mo
• Annual: $-391/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-391/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (19.6% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $149k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#548 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment F, housing F.
• Richland SD (suburban): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #54 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Richland El Sch (math 57% / reading 71%, grade B, #289 of 1,518 statewide, top 19%, 811 students, 34% FRL); Richland Hs (math 56% / reading 73%, grade B-, #66 of 437 statewide, top 15%, 715 students, 26% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.