4000 Elton Rd · University of Pittsburgh Johnstown, PA 15904

$185,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1958 0.40 ac lot $102/sqft · 5% below area Est $195k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 br, 1.5 ba cape cod style home situated in Richland Twp on a nice level lot. Extremely well maintained 1 owner home. Move in ready! Convenient 1st floor bedroom, large living room w/ gas fireplace insert, new carpet, diningroom, eat in kitchen w/ oak cabinets, and a relaxing 3 season porch. Upstairs offers 2 additional bedrooms and a bonus room (captive) could be a walk in closet or office. Exceptionally clean dry basement with high ceilings could easily be finished. 2 car detached garage with storage. Hardwood floors under carpet.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1958

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer / sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half to two levels; 2 total stories; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Below-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch; Rectangular lot; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom located downstairs
• Flooring: Hardwood; Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Electric heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets; Master bedroom on main level; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement; Full, partially finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-391/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#548 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment F, housing F.
• Richland SD (suburban): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #54 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Richland El Sch (math 57% / reading 71%, grade B, #289 of 1,518 statewide, top 19%, 811 students, 34% FRL); Richland Hs (math 56% / reading 73%, grade B-, #66 of 437 statewide, top 15%, 715 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $148,658 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,954
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -5.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-32,076
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-30,691
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15904

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,917/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,528

Max offer price $179,242

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $72	-5% $20	+0% $-33	+5% $-85	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-150	-5% $-91	+0% $-33	+5% $26	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $14	base $-33	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1116-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $185,000 Active 1116-char remark
3. 2012-06-25
   soldstatus $137,580 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   3 br, 1.5 ba cape cod style home situated in Richland Twp on a nice level lot. Extremely well maintained 1 owner home. Move in ready! Convenient 1st floor bedroom, large living room w/ gas fireplace insert, new carpet, diningroom, eat in kitchen w/ oak cabinets, and a relaxing 3 season porch. Upstairs offers 2 additional bedrooms and a bonus room (captive) could be a walk in closet or office. Exceptionally clean dry basement with high ceilings could easily be finished. 2 car detached garage with storage. Hardwood floors under carpet.

4. 2012-06-25
   soldstatus $137,580

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   3 br, 1.5 ba cape cod style home situated in Richland Twp on a nice level lot. Extremely well maintained 1 owner home. Move in ready! Convenient 1st floor bedroom, large living room w/ gas fireplace insert, new carpet, diningroom, eat in kitchen w/ oak cabinets, and a relaxing 3 season porch. Upstairs offers 2 additional bedrooms and a bonus room (captive) could be a walk in closet or office. Exceptionally clean dry basement with high ceilings could easily be finished. 2 car detached garage with storage. Hardwood floors under carpet.

5. 2012-03-15
   listed $135,000 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   3 br, 1.5 ba cape cod style home situated in Richland Twp on a nice level lot. Extremely well maintained 1 owner home. Move in ready! Convenient 1st floor bedroom, large living room w/ gas fireplace insert, new carpet, diningroom, eat in kitchen w/ oak cabinets, and a relaxing 3 season porch. Upstairs offers 2 additional bedrooms and a bonus room (captive) could be a walk in closet or office. Exceptionally clean dry basement with high ceilings could easily be finished. 2 car detached garage with storage. Hardwood floors under carpet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,917 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,420 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$503/yr (+$42/mo · 26.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,917
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,427
• − Management: −$1,427
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$864
• After-tax cash flow: $473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland SD
• NCES district ID: 4220250
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,705
• Composite: 54.72/100
• National rank: #1322
• State rank: #54 of 539 in PA

Livability — University of Pittsburgh Johnstown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #548
• US rank: #5102

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,283

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.96%
• Current HPI: 151.6715
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+91.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) $259,000 CSMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — CSMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $185,000 CSMLS
• 2012-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $137,580 Public Records
• 2012-06-25 Sold (MLS) $137,580 CSMLS
• 2012-03-15 Listed $135,000 CSMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,917 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.