5283 S Cr 2869

Hawkins, TX 75765

$245,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$475
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-180/mo
• Annual: $-2,155/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.98%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (18.4% below list).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#196 in TX, #4,982 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hawkins ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #339 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hawkins El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 383 students, 64% FRL); Hawkins H S / Middle (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 386 students, 59% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 219 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.