Flamingo Plan

Fort Pierce, FL 34982

$229,990D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,054/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,163
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$112
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-22/mo
• Annual: $-258/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $62,093

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-258/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (10.7% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in FL, #3,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 336 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Fort Pierce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,054/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1086% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.