40 Pine Trl

Averill Park, NY 12153

$49,900A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,276/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $600/mo
• Annual: $7,203/yr
• Cap rate: 20.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.56%
• DSCR: 3.29
• 1% rule: 2.56%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $600 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#101 in NY, #1,641 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Averill Park Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #169 of 590 in NY (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Averill Park High School (math 97% / reading 98%, grade A+, #49 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 897 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 97% at this address vs 64% district-wide (+34 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Averill Park Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.