40 Pine Trl · Averill Park, NY 12153

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1930 0.36 ac lot $63/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

MULTIPLE OFFERS. Offers due Weds 5/27 @5PM. Seize this rare opportunity to create your custom lakeside retreat. This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom cottage is ripe for renovation and fixing up to make completely your own. The living room is truly grand, boasting soaring cathedral ceilings, gorgeous knotty pine walls, and a magnificent central stone fireplace. Relax and take in stunning lake views from the charming sunroom, which opens to a private deck. Two storage sheds provide ample space for gear. The ultimate recreational lifestyle comes with the property: a coveted membership to the Berlin Mountains Fish and Game Club! Enjoy 480+ acres of private woodland and trails, plus exclusive acc

Key facts

• Private deck
• Stunning lake views
• Custom renovation

Tags

• CUSTOM RENOVATION
• STUNNING LAKE VIEWS
• PRIVATE DECK
• STORAGE SHEDS
• PRIVATE WOODLAND
• EXCLUSIVE ACCESS TO THE LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Route 43 to Taborton to Pine Trail
• Financial info: No additional financial investment details provided
• HOA & community: Has association; Annual association fee of $750; Association amenities include beach access, boat dock, clubhouse, lake access and recreation facilities; Association fee includes water and other services

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking for 2 vehicles
• Security: No specific security features provided
• Utilities: Septic tank; Seasonal shared well water
• Home design: Cabin property type; Fixer condition; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Wood siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Deck; Shed(s); Private, wooded lot; Seasonal, shared, deeded water access

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor; Sun room on the first floor (could be used as additional living space)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; 6 total rooms; One wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Crawl space basement with exterior entry
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $600 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#101 in NY, #1,641 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Averill Park Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #169 of 590 in NY (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Averill Park High School (math 97% / reading 98%, grade A+, #49 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 897 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 97% at this address vs 64% district-wide (+34 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Averill Park Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.56%
• DSCR: 3.29
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $54,038
• Equity at exit: $32,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.22×
• Total profit: $128,811
• Equity at exit: $60,744

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12153

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $516

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $6,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,647
• After-tax cash flow: $5,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Averill Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600016
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,340
• Composite: 56.94/100
• National rank: #1113
• State rank: #169 of 590 in NY

Livability — Averill Park

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 751

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% German 6% Serbian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.45%
• Current HPI: 273.2537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $49,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,101 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.