14001 Sierra Way Way

Kernville, CA 93238

$99,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1985 · Land · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $389/mo
• Annual: $4,664/yr
• Cap rate: 11.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.52%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $818 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $127 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,366 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 1.9% in Kernville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.