14001 Sierra Way Way · Kernville, CA 93238

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Land · 99 Days on market

Built 1985 $119/sqft · 100% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a really cute place !! The unit is 2 bedroom 1 bath. Tiled flooring through out with new kitchen tiled counters & electric ondemand water heater. Appliances are fairly new and all stay. The property is fully fenced and has an awesome patio to enjoy. Adjoining storage is alaundry. There are actually 4 storage areas so plenty of room for any extras. Nice set up with big living room, dining and kitchen. Lots of windows toenjoy the views. Roof and exterior paint is 2 years old . Make this your very own family vacation get away or live here full time. The park is locatedright on the river so you can walk to the river. Go fishing or pick out your own beach area. This is a fun park with lots of trails and creeks runningthrough the park. The golf cart is very nice. This can also be available for sale !! Let Make A Deal !!

Key facts

• Tiled flooring
• Fully fenced
• Lots of windows

Tags

• TILED FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN TILED COUNTERS
• ELECTRIC ONDEMAND WATER HEATER
• FULLY FENCED
• BIG LIVING ROOM
• LOTS OF WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 1.9% in Kernville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,366 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $818 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $127 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.52%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,867,924
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -99.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $22,494
• Equity at exit: $29,646

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $65,504
• Equity at exit: $36,150

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93238

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $958

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $458	-5% $423	+0% $389	+5% $354	+10% $320
Rent	-10% $274	-5% $331	+0% $389	+5% $446	+10% $503
Rate	-1.0pp $439	-0.5pp $414	base $389	+0.5pp $363	+1.0pp $336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Burlando Rd Unit A Kernville, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	4d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-02-14
   listed $99,900 Active 839-char remark

   Show marketing remark (839 chars)

   This is a really cute place !! The unit is 2 bedroom 1 bath. Tiled flooring through out with new kitchen tiled counters & electric ondemand water heater. Appliances are fairly new and all stay. The property is fully fenced and has an awesome patio to enjoy. Adjoining storage is alaundry. There are actually 4 storage areas so plenty of room for any extras. Nice set up with big living room, dining and kitchen. Lots of windows toenjoy the views. Roof and exterior paint is 2 years old . Make this your very own family vacation get away or live here full time. The park is locatedright on the river so you can walk to the river. Go fishing or pick out your own beach area. This is a fun park with lots of trails and creeks runningthrough the park. The golf cart is very nice. This can also be available for sale !! Let Make A Deal !!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$1,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,318
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$796
• After-tax cash flow: $3,867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Kernville

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1366
• US rank: #27076

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kernville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 726

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Pacific Islander 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Italian 7%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.13%
• Current HPI: 212.9272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $99,900 SSMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,010 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.