5954 E Rayburn Ave

Fresno, CA 93727

$442,500F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,116 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,745/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,321
• Tax + insurance: −$738
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-889/mo
• Annual: $-10,669/yr
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.61%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $123,900

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $442k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-889 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (38.0% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($429k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $275k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Sanger Unified (town): math 22% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #216 of 517 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sequoia Elementary (669 students, 60% FRL); Washington Academic Middle (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #474 of 498 statewide, top 99%, 1,462 students, 75% FRL); Sanger High (math 24% / reading 66%, grade D-, #425 of 1,170 statewide, top 37%, 2,734 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sanger Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.