5954 E Rayburn Ave · Fresno, CA 93727

$442,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,116 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $209/sqft · 7% below area Est $478k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home showcases a modern layout, ideal for growing or busy families. On the first level is a seamless flow between the Great Room, dining area and kitchen with a large center island and walk-in pantry. A powder room also provides convenience for both family members and guests. Upstairs are all four bedrooms and a laundry room to help keep the home organized. The owner's suite comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Kitchen
• Dining area

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• POWDER ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $442k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-889 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (38.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Sanger Unified (town): math 22% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #216 of 517 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sequoia Elementary (669 students, 60% FRL); Washington Academic Middle (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #474 of 498 statewide, top 99%, 1,462 students, 75% FRL); Sanger High (math 24% / reading 66%, grade D-, #425 of 1,170 statewide, top 37%, 2,734 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sanger Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($429k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $274,546 (38.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.61%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $477,823
• List price: $442,500
• Delta: -7.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2409 S Bundy Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,016 (-5%)	2mo	$510,000	$253	82
5885 E Booker Ave	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,029 (-4%)	6mo	$505,000	$249	73
1923 S Fairway	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,101 (-1%)	2mo	$556,000	$265	71
2446 S Claremont Ave	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,016 (-5%)	3mo	$533,000	$264	70
2434 S Claremont Ave	0.37mi	3/2.8 (-1)	2,029 (-4%)	1mo	$519,000	$256	69
5840 E Erin Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,029 (-4%)	0mo	$500,000	$246	67
835 S Bliss Ave	0.66mi	4/2.8	2,108 (-0%)	2mo	$575,000	$273	66
2163 S Bundy Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,290 (+8%)	8mo	$499,900	$218	61
2163 S Bundy Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,290 (+8%)	8mo	$499,900	$218	61
5688 E Christine Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,061 (-3%)	1mo	$480,000	$233	59
1904 S Fairway Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,982 (-6%)	9mo	$534,000	$269	56
5660 E Florence Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,858 (-12%)	4mo	$455,000	$245	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-128,428
• Equity at exit: $65,978

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-185,148
• Equity at exit: $38,259

Cash invested: $123,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.9 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $450,000 ($224/sqft)
• Median days on market: 30 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 93727

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,321
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$553 /mo · $6,638/yr
• Insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-889

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,871

Max offer price $313,845

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-583	-5% $-736	+0% $-889	+5% $-1,042	+10% $-1,195
Rent	-10% $-1,106	-5% $-998	+0% $-889	+5% $-781	+10% $-672
Rate	-1.0pp $-666	-0.5pp $-777	base $-889	+0.5pp $-1,004	+1.0pp $-1,120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,625
• Closing costs: $13,275
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5893 E Laurite Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,150	$1.32	15d	1	0.24mi
5781 E Kaviland Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	2.5	2617	$2,800	$1.07	15d	1	0.56mi
2570 S Duke Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,300	$1.45	15d	1	0.63mi
814 S Bliss Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	2.0	1881	$2,550	$1.36	46d	1	0.73mi
1193 S Carriage Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1492	$2,295	$1.54	19d	1	0.85mi
6590 E Krum Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,600	$1.58	27d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $442,500 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $442,500 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $442,500 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $442,500 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $442,500 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $445,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,500 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,500 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $439,500 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $439,500 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,500 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $439,500 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $442,700 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $442,700 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $450,000 Active 459-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,787
• − Property taxes: −$6,638
• − Insurance: −$2,212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,636
• − Management: −$2,636
• − Depreciation: −$12,873
• Taxable loss: −$18,835
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,520
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 20 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This modern two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a seamless flow between the Great Room, dining area, and kitchen, making it ideal for growing or busy families. The home's curb appeal and interior design are already strong, but there are several updates that could further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sequoia Elementary Middle Washington Academic Middle F CA #474/498 Nat'l #13,307/14,009 High Sanger West High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sanger Unified
• NCES district ID: 0635250
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,180
• Composite: 36.67/100
• National rank: #4608
• State rank: #216 of 517 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• County: Fresno County · 1,042,971 people
• City population: 593,114
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 84,107
• Household income: $87,466
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Asian 27% Two or more races 22% White 18% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Other Indo-European 6%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -317.54%
• Current HPI: 379.1959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B