125 Northgate Cir

Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$719,000C+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,995 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,771
• Tax + insurance: −$1,156
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $999/mo
• Annual: $11,987/yr
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.95%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $201,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $719k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $999 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $719k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $600k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $201k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.