125 Northgate Cir · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$719,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,995 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1997 0.49 ac lot $360/sqft · 9% below area Est $786k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 1997 discover the Northfork at its finest with this thoughtfully and lovingly maintained, beautiful 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath Colonial which is nestled in the heart of Baiting Hollow. This home features the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and character. The main levvel boasts a sun drenched, open and airy layout which offers a large Foyer, .5 bath, spacioue EIK which flows seamlessly into the living room, formal dining room and den. On the second level you'll find an expansive Primary bedroom w/ensuite and vaulted ceiling, WIC, 3 additional bedrooms and full bath in the hall, lots of closets and an attic for added storage space. While the basement houses the utilites it also provides an unfinished versatile space for an extra room, office or home gym, the possibilities are endless. 1 car garage w/storage space above, 100 AMP electrical service, roof is 7 years young and burner is 4. 4 zone underground sprinklers. Step out into your private backyard oasis which is the ultimate and tranquil setting for relaxing or hosting bbq's, with loved ones and friends. Located close to Long Island sound, beaches, vineyards, parks Greenbelt trails, farmstands, shopping, restaurants and golf. Don't let this hidden gem pass you by.

Key facts

• Large foyer
• Spacious eik
• Open and airy layout

Tags

• OPEN AND AIRY LAYOUT
• LARGE FOYER
• SPACIOUS EIK
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• 4 ZONE UNDERGROUND SPRINKLERS
• UNFINISHED VERSATILE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $719k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $999 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $719k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $201k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $600k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $719,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.95%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $786,000
• List price: $719,000
• Delta: -8.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24 Pleasant Ct	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,265 (+14%)	6mo	$810,000	$358	65
78 Southfield Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,888 (-5%)	6mo	$749,000	$397	63
189 Southfield Rd	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,265 (+14%)	4mo	$500,000	$221	60
64 Baiting Hollow Ln	0.45mi	4/1.5	2,056 (+3%)	13mo	$525,000	$255	59
92 Donna Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,075 (+4%)	9mo	$705,000	$340	56
43 Southfield Rd	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,265 (+14%)	3mo	$786,000	$347	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $160,248
• Equity at exit: $333,855

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $469,361
• Equity at exit: $522,875

Cash invested: $201,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,771
• Tax from tax record: −$856 /mo · $10,272/yr
• Insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $999

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,236

Max offer price $719,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $179,750
• Closing costs: $21,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Mastro Ct Calverton, NY	3.0	2.5	1822	$7,500	$4.12	1d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $719,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $719,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $719,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $719,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $719,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $719,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $719,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on marketlisting id $719,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $719,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $719,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $719,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $719,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $763,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $763,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $763,000 1244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1244 chars)

    Built in 1997 discover the Northfork at its finest with this thoughtfully and lovingly maintained, beautiful 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath Colonial which is nestled in the heart of Baiting Hollow. This home features the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and character. The main levvel boasts a sun drenched, open and airy layout which offers a large Foyer, .5 bath, spacioue EIK which flows seamlessly into the living room, formal dining room and den. On the second level you'll find an expansive Primary bedroom w/ensuite and vaulted ceiling, WIC, 3 additional bedrooms and full bath in the hall, lots of closets and an attic for added storage space. While the basement houses the utilites it also provides an unfinished versatile space for an extra room, office or home gym, the possibilities are endless. 1 car garage w/storage space above, 100 AMP electrical service, roof is 7 years young and burner is 4. 4 zone underground sprinklers. Step out into your private backyard oasis which is the ultimate and tranquil setting for relaxing or hosting bbq's, with loved ones and friends. Located close to Long Island sound, beaches, vineyards, parks Greenbelt trails, farmstands, shopping, restaurants and golf. Don't let this hidden gem pass you by.

16. 2026-02-02
    listed $789,000 Active 1244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1244 chars)

    Built in 1997 discover the Northfork at its finest with this thoughtfully and lovingly maintained, beautiful 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath Colonial which is nestled in the heart of Baiting Hollow. This home features the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and character. The main levvel boasts a sun drenched, open and airy layout which offers a large Foyer, .5 bath, spacioue EIK which flows seamlessly into the living room, formal dining room and den. On the second level you'll find an expansive Primary bedroom w/ensuite and vaulted ceiling, WIC, 3 additional bedrooms and full bath in the hall, lots of closets and an attic for added storage space. While the basement houses the utilites it also provides an unfinished versatile space for an extra room, office or home gym, the possibilities are endless. 1 car garage w/storage space above, 100 AMP electrical service, roof is 7 years young and burner is 4. 4 zone underground sprinklers. Step out into your private backyard oasis which is the ultimate and tranquil setting for relaxing or hosting bbq's, with loved ones and friends. Located close to Long Island sound, beaches, vineyards, parks Greenbelt trails, farmstands, shopping, restaurants and golf. Don't let this hidden gem pass you by.

17. 1994-03-31
    soldstatus $600,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,272 · $856/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,212 · $934/mo
• Expected delta: +$939/yr (+$78/mo · 9.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,275
• − Property taxes: −$10,272
• − Insurance: −$3,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,200
• − Management: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$20,916
• Taxable income: $541
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$130
• After-tax cash flow: $11,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+27.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $763,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $789,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $600,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,272 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.