5 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,698 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,037/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,045
Tax + insurance
−$650
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$848
Net cashflow
$494/mo
Annual
$5,934/yr
Cap rate
7.81%
Cash-on-cash
5.44%
DSCR
1.24
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$109,172
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $390k).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $384k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,087 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
Haverstraw-Stony Point CSD (North Rockland) (suburban): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #427 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: West Haverstraw Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 742 students, 22% FRL); Fieldstone Middle School (math 18% / reading 46%, grade F, #511 of 729 statewide, top 71%, 1,247 students, 0% FRL); North Rockland High School (math 86% / reading 67%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,687 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 7% FRL vs 40% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.2% in Haverstraw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,037/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 791% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WN9T9J6914H72G
· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29