2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,064 sqft ·
Built 1993
· Condo
· Active
· 72 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,483/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,211
Tax + insurance
−$222
HOA
−$557
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$521
Net cashflow
$-29/mo
Annual
$-344/yr
Cap rate
6.14%
Cash-on-cash
-0.53%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
1.07%
Cash to close
$64,680
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $231k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-344/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (2.2% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $231k).
It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $217k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Marjorie G. Kinnan Elementary School (math 60% / reading 49%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 516 students, 73% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.1%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $183k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Desoto Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WNB4S4CS50BEHX
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29