680 Round Mountain Rd

Irvine, KY 40336

$45,000B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $891/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $421/mo
• Annual: $5,048/yr
• Cap rate: 17.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.06%
• DSCR: 2.78
• 1% rule: 1.98%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($891 rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#254 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Estill County (rural): math 19% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #146 of 165 in KY (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: West Irvine Elementary (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #477 of 676 statewide, top 71%, 468 students, 69% FRL); Estill County Middle School (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #181 of 217 statewide, top 84%, 446 students, 70% FRL); Estill County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 644 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP.
• Estill County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.