4837 Faith Home Rd #177

Keyes, CA 95307

$100,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,098/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $966/mo
• Annual: $11,596/yr
• Cap rate: 17.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.41%
• DSCR: 2.84
• 1% rule: 2.10%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $966 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,280 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucas Elementary (653 students, 76% FRL); Cesar Chavez Junior High (662 students, 83% FRL); Ceres High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,777 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 4.0% in Keyes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.