4837 Faith Home Rd #177 · Keyes, CA 95307

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $114k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Ceres Mobile Estates, 4837 Faith Home Rd. #117 offers 1,440 square feet of comfortable living space with two bedrooms and one bathroom. The home features a low-maintenance front yard with mature landscaping, covered parking under the attached carport, and a ramp providing easy access to the side entrance. Inside, the spacious layout creates a warm and functional living environment. The kitchen offers ample cabinet storage, laminate flooring, a built-in wall oven, stainless steel dishwasher, and an island that opens to the dining and living areas, making everyday living and entertaining easy. A stone-faced fireplace adds character to the main living space, while ceiling fans and n

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Built-in wall oven
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• LOW-MAINTENANCE FRONT YARD
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• COVERED PARKING
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• BUILT-IN WALL OVEN
• STAINLESS STEEL DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: $1,195 (listed alongside land info)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric: Other
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Built in 1977; Golden West make
• Construction: Metal roof; Manufactured construction (double wide)
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Built-in gas range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Great room living area; Formal dining area; Stone fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $966 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 4.0% in Keyes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,280 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucas Elementary (653 students, 76% FRL); Cesar Chavez Junior High (662 students, 83% FRL); Ceres High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,777 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.41%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,760
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4837 Faith Home Rd #26	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$160,000	$111	90
4837 Faith Home Rd #3	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$100,000	$69	82
4837 Faith Home Rd #4	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (-5%)	2mo	$94,999	$69	81
4837 Faith Home Rd #30	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	21mo	$117,500	$82	78
4837 Faith Home Rd #166	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$135,000	$100	77
4812 Esmar Rd #49	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	5mo	$115,000	$75	72
4812 Esmar Rd #2	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$80,000	$60	70
4837 Faith Home Rd #169	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	23mo	$98,000	$79	54
4812 Esmar Rd #18	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (-11%)	14mo	$116,500	$91	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $45,373
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $118,888
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95307

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $966

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,035	-5% $1,001	+0% $966	+5% $932	+10% $897
Rent	-10% $801	-5% $883	+0% $966	+5% $1,049	+10% $1,132
Rate	-1.0pp $1,017	-0.5pp $992	base $966	+0.5pp $940	+1.0pp $914

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3824 Hollywood Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,220	$2.02	45d	1	0.24mi
5232 Clark St Keyes, CA	3.0	2.0	1133	$2,200	$1.94	15d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $100,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $10,637
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,553
• After-tax cash flow: $9,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Keyes

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1280
• US rank: #26476

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keyes, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 3,939
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,310
• Household income: $80,627
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1102.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 34% White 23% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -362.75%
• Current HPI: 307.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B