2125 Branchwood

Grapevine, TX 76051

$567,900D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,844 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,770/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,978
• Tax + insurance: −$962
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$792
• Net cashflow: $-961/mo
• Annual: $-11,536/yr
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.25%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $159,012

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $568k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-961 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $398k (29.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $377k (33.6% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $377k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#14 in TX, #1,085 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, amenities A-; Watch: cost of living D+, commute D.
• Carroll ISD (suburban): math 84% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #1 of 826 in TX (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Jack D Johnson El (math 75% / reading 84%, grade A, #35 of 4,322 statewide, top 1%, 690 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.8% in Grapevine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.