2125 Branchwood · Grapevine, TX 76051

$567,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,844 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1992 9,200 sqft lot $200/sqft · 11% below area Est $649k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Schools +8.3/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open House, Sunday, Oct. 21, 3:30-4:30pm! Beautifully updated home located in a popular Grapevine neighborhood zoned to Southlake schools * Rich hardwoods throughout except tile in the wet areas meaning NO CARPET * Upgraded light fixtures * Granite & stainless appliances in kitchen * 1-yr. old saltwater pool with rock waterfall * $8k new 18-seer AC unit Sept 2012 * Radiant barrier * 5th bedroom is 19'x20' and would make a great game room

Key facts

• Treelined street
• Formal dining area
• 9,200 sq ft lot

Tags

• FORMAL DINING AREA
• PRIVATE IN-GROUND POOL
• TREELINED STREET
• WINDING CREEK ESTATES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Winding Creek Estates
• Financial info: Listing terms include cash and other; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City sewer; Electricity connected; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story home; Property is not attached
• Construction: Built in 1992; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: In-ground pool; Backyard fencing; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms (primary bedroom on the first floor; other bedrooms on first and second floors as noted)
• Flooring: Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: Three bathrooms total (2 full, 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; One fireplace in the living room
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; One living area; One dining area; Total of 10 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Utility room for laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $568k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-961 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $398k (29.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $377k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $377k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.8% in Grapevine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#14 in TX, #1,085 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, amenities A-; Watch: cost of living D+, commute D.
• Carroll ISD (suburban): math 84% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #1 of 826 in TX (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Jack D Johnson El (math 75% / reading 84%, grade A, #35 of 4,322 statewide, top 1%, 690 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $377,025 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.25%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $648,518
• List price: $567,900
• Delta: -12.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2125 Branchwood	0.00mi	5/2.5	2,903 (+2%)	0mo	$567,900	$196	94
1068 Rosewood Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,795 (-2%)	3mo	$659,000	$236	81
2121 Brentcove Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,976 (+5%)	0mo	$840,000	$282	78
1081 Woodbriar Dr	0.20mi	5/2.5	3,111 (+9%)	0mo	$749,000	$241	73
2156 Sandell Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,500 (-12%)	2mo	$639,950	$256	66
1041 Woodbriar Dr	0.30mi	5/2.5	3,122 (+10%)	4mo	$825,000	$264	64
1060 Rosewood Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,117 (+10%)	4mo	$689,000	$221	64
2116 S Winding Creek Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,586 (-9%)	5mo	$625,000	$242	54
1048 W Winding Creek Dr	0.33mi	5/3.5	3,201 (+13%)	5mo	$550,000	$172	54
2225 Branchwood Dr	0.21mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,214 (+13%)	6mo	$924,700	$288	52
826 Lake Forest Ct	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,424 (-15%)	1mo	$625,000	$258	40
521 Austin Oaks Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,516 (-12%)	5mo	$653,000	$260	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-153,944
• Equity at exit: $84,676

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-215,718
• Equity at exit: $49,102

Cash invested: $159,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76051

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,978
• Tax from tax record: −$725 /mo · $8,701/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$792
• Net cashflow: $-961

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,987

Max offer price $398,075

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $141,975
• Closing costs: $17,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2108 Sandell Dr Grapevine, TX	4.0	3.0	3191	$4,195	$1.31	6d	1	0.06mi
2128 N Aspenwood Dr Grapevine, TX	4.0	2.0	2096	$3,600	$1.72	12d	1	0.31mi
1404 Clearwater Ct Grapevine, TX	4.0	3.0	2515	$3,550	$1.41	5d	1	0.51mi
2902 Panhandle Dr Grapevine, TX	4.0	3.0	1990	$4,200	$2.11	22d	1	0.69mi
2719 Hidden Lake Dr Grapevine, TX	4.0	3.0	3366	$4,400	$1.31	43d	1	0.83mi
2719 Hidden Lake Dr Grapevine, TX	4.0	3.0	3366	$4,400	$1.31	16d	1	0.83mi
2937 Sweet Briar St Grapevine, TX	4.0	2.5	2438	$4,300	$1.76	1d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 266-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $567,900 Active 266-char remark
3. 2015-10-28
   soldstatus
4. 2015-10-27
   soldstatus Sold
5. 2015-10-13
   status Pending
6. 2015-09-30
   historical Active Option Contract
7. 2015-09-26
   listed $399,000 Active
8. 2012-11-02
   soldstatus
9. 2012-10-31
   soldstatus Closed

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   Open House, Sunday, Oct. 21, 3:30-4:30pm! Beautifully updated home located in a popular Grapevine neighborhood zoned to Southlake schools * Rich hardwoods throughout except tile in the wet areas meaning NO CARPET * Upgraded light fixtures * Granite & stainless appliances in kitchen * 1-yr. old saltwater pool with rock waterfall * $8k new 18-seer AC unit Sept 2012 * Radiant barrier * 5th bedroom is 19'x20' and would make a great game room

10. 2012-10-29
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Open House, Sunday, Oct. 21, 3:30-4:30pm! Beautifully updated home located in a popular Grapevine neighborhood zoned to Southlake schools * Rich hardwoods throughout except tile in the wet areas meaning NO CARPET * Upgraded light fixtures * Granite & stainless appliances in kitchen * 1-yr. old saltwater pool with rock waterfall * $8k new 18-seer AC unit Sept 2012 * Radiant barrier * 5th bedroom is 19'x20' and would make a great game room

11. 2012-10-21
    historical Active Option Contract

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Open House, Sunday, Oct. 21, 3:30-4:30pm! Beautifully updated home located in a popular Grapevine neighborhood zoned to Southlake schools * Rich hardwoods throughout except tile in the wet areas meaning NO CARPET * Upgraded light fixtures * Granite & stainless appliances in kitchen * 1-yr. old saltwater pool with rock waterfall * $8k new 18-seer AC unit Sept 2012 * Radiant barrier * 5th bedroom is 19'x20' and would make a great game room

12. 2012-10-04
    listed $299,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Open House, Sunday, Oct. 21, 3:30-4:30pm! Beautifully updated home located in a popular Grapevine neighborhood zoned to Southlake schools * Rich hardwoods throughout except tile in the wet areas meaning NO CARPET * Upgraded light fixtures * Granite & stainless appliances in kitchen * 1-yr. old saltwater pool with rock waterfall * $8k new 18-seer AC unit Sept 2012 * Radiant barrier * 5th bedroom is 19'x20' and would make a great game room

13. 2007-04-05
    soldstatus
14. 2007-03-22
    soldstatus
15. 2007-02-26
    historical
16. 2006-10-16
    listed $269,990
17. 1998-05-06
    soldstatus
18. 1989-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,701 · $725/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,393 · $866/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,692/yr (+$141/mo · 19.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,811
• − Property taxes: −$8,701
• − Insurance: −$2,840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,619
• − Management: −$3,619
• − Depreciation: −$16,521
• Taxable loss: −$21,868
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,248
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813020
• Math proficiency: 84% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $176,203
• Composite: 82.64/100
• National rank: #21
• State rank: #1 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grapevine

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #1085

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living D+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grapevine, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 50,618
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 50,618
• Household income: $111,160
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2272.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -291.98%
• Current HPI: 274.5097
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.80%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+110.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $567,900 NTREIS
• 2015-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-10-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-09-30 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2015-09-26 Listed $399,000 NTREIS
• 2012-11-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-10-31 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2012-10-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2012-10-21 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2012-10-04 Listed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2007-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-02-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-10-16 Listed $269,990 NTREIS
• 1998-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,701 · -15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.