437 Lcr Redbud A

Mexia, TX 76667

$99,500C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 264 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,169/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $204/mo
• Annual: $2,442/yr
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.77%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $27,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#458 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Groesbeck ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: H O Whitehurst El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 501 students, 73% FRL); Groesbeck Middle (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 277 students, 70% FRL); Groesbeck H S (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 458 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Limestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.6% in Mexia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.