437 Lcr Redbud A · Mexia, TX 76667

$99,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 263 Days on market

Built 1985 1.01 ac lot $71/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this rustic 2-story cabin nestled on a beautiful 1-acre shaded lot with a lake view. Offering over 1400 square feet of living space, this home includes 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with plenty of potential for renovation or customization. The main floor features a spacious living area, while the upstairs provides additional space with bedrooms or a home office. Outside you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings and plenty of room for outdoor activities or future expansion. Perfect for those seeking a country retreat, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this fixer-upper combines charm, space, and endless possibilities.

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Lake view
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• 1 ACRE LOT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.6% in Mexia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#458 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Groesbeck ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Limestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.77%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,204
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: -55.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,122
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $14,127
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76667

• Home prices YoY: -8.9%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,169 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,883/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $912

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $232	+0% $204	+5% $175	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $111	-5% $157	+0% $204	+5% $250	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $254	-0.5pp $229	base $204	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,500 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,500 Active 255 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,500 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,500 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 246 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 245 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 244 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 243 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    price $99,500 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    Welcome to this rustic 2-story cabin nestled on a beautiful 1-acre shaded lot with a lake view. Offering over 1400 square feet of living space, this home includes 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with plenty of potential for renovation or customization. The main floor features a spacious living area, while the upstairs provides additional space with bedrooms or a home office. Outside you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings and plenty of room for outdoor activities or future expansion. Perfect for those seeking a country retreat, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this fixer-upper combines charm, space, and endless possibilities.

17. 2026-02-27
    price $124,500 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    Welcome to this rustic 2-story cabin nestled on a beautiful 1-acre shaded lot with a lake view. Offering over 1400 square feet of living space, this home includes 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with plenty of potential for renovation or customization. The main floor features a spacious living area, while the upstairs provides additional space with bedrooms or a home office. Outside you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings and plenty of room for outdoor activities or future expansion. Perfect for those seeking a country retreat, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this fixer-upper combines charm, space, and endless possibilities.

18. 2025-09-30
    listed $134,500 Active 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    Welcome to this rustic 2-story cabin nestled on a beautiful 1-acre shaded lot with a lake view. Offering over 1400 square feet of living space, this home includes 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with plenty of potential for renovation or customization. The main floor features a spacious living area, while the upstairs provides additional space with bedrooms or a home office. Outside you'll enjoy peaceful surroundings and plenty of room for outdoor activities or future expansion. Perfect for those seeking a country retreat, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this fixer-upper combines charm, space, and endless possibilities.

19. 2024-05-03
    soldstatus Closed 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Looking for one acre with a lake view to call your own? This is it! The lot is beautiful with many tall old growth oaks! The home is older and could use some sprucing up but has been lived in for the last 35 years. Would make a great second home for anyone looking for a quiet place by the lake.

20. 2024-03-20
    status Pending 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Looking for one acre with a lake view to call your own? This is it! The lot is beautiful with many tall old growth oaks! The home is older and could use some sprucing up but has been lived in for the last 35 years. Would make a great second home for anyone looking for a quiet place by the lake.

21. 2024-02-12
    price $139,000 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Looking for one acre with a lake view to call your own? This is it! The lot is beautiful with many tall old growth oaks! The home is older and could use some sprucing up but has been lived in for the last 35 years. Would make a great second home for anyone looking for a quiet place by the lake.

22. 2024-01-04
    price $149,000 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Looking for one acre with a lake view to call your own? This is it! The lot is beautiful with many tall old growth oaks! The home is older and could use some sprucing up but has been lived in for the last 35 years. Would make a great second home for anyone looking for a quiet place by the lake.

23. 2023-11-21
    listed $179,000 Active 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Looking for one acre with a lake view to call your own? This is it! The lot is beautiful with many tall old growth oaks! The home is older and could use some sprucing up but has been lived in for the last 35 years. Would make a great second home for anyone looking for a quiet place by the lake.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,883 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,883 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,883
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,122
• − Management: −$1,122
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$225
• After-tax cash flow: $2,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Groesbeck ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821810
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,929
• Composite: 25.3/100
• National rank: #7487
• State rank: #634 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mexia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #458
• US rank: #9265

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,494

Population outlook (Limestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,396 people
• By 2030: 23,214 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 22,829 · -2.4%
• By 2050: 22,516 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 22,088 · -5.6%
• By 2100: 20,354 · -13.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 24% Black 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Limestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 21.2% · R 78.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+52.3 2012: R+40.7 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.91%
• Current HPI: 161.8191
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-44.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $99,500 NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $124,500 NTREIS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $134,500 NTREIS
• 2024-05-03 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-03-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-02-12 Price Changed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2024-01-04 Price Changed $149,000 NTREIS
• 2023-11-21 Listed $179,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,883 · +107.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.