531 Deer Loop

Plum, TX 78945

$140,000C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,948 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Pending · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,552/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $160/mo
• Annual: $1,916/yr
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.89%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $160 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• La Grange ISD (town): math 43% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #300 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: La Grange El (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 998 students, 62% FRL); La Grange Middle (math 59% / reading 55%, grade B, #212 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 300 students, 52% FRL); La Grange H S (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 585 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fayette County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.