531 Deer Loop · Plum, TX 78945

$140,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,948 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1982 1.40 ac lot $72/sqft · 60% below area $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special! This 3/2.5/2 home is 1948 square feet and sits on 1.4 acres (4 lots) in the secluded/private community of Clear Lake Pines, covered with towering Pine trees, 7 scenic lakes, and tennis courts. The property also has a separate garage, circle driveway, & storage building. The Trane AC system is less than 5 years old and all the plumbing under the house was replaced in 2020. The property is currently appraised with the county at $321,230. Ideal for Investors, flippers, or Renovation financing. If you are a DIYer, this home is your Dream Come True!! ***The School district is LaGrange, but MLS did not offer that option for Elementary, Jr. High, and High School. ***NO OWNER FINANCING or Subto Deals will be considered***

Key facts

• Separate garage
• Secluded community
• Tennis courts

Tags

• SECLUDED COMMUNITY
• TOWERING PINE TREES
• SCENIC LAKES
• TENNIS COURTS
• SEPARATE GARAGE
• CIRCLE DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $160 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• La Grange ISD (town): math 43% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #300 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: La Grange El (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 998 students, 62% FRL); La Grange Middle (math 59% / reading 55%, grade B, #212 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 300 students, 52% FRL); La Grange H S (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 585 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.89%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,039
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -60.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1013 Otto Ln	0.38mi	3/3.0	2,190 (+12%)	17mo	$379,000	$173	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-12,433
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,610
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78945

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,552 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,036/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,350

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $239	-5% $199	+0% $160	+5% $120	+10% $80
Rent	-10% $37	-5% $98	+0% $160	+5% $221	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $195	base $160	+0.5pp $123	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Investor Special! This 3/2.5/2 home is 1948 square feet and sits on 1.4 acres (4 lots) in the secluded/private community of Clear Lake Pines, covered with towering Pine trees, 7 scenic lakes, and tennis courts. The property also has a separate garage, circle driveway, & storage building. The Trane AC system is less than 5 years old and all the plumbing under the house was replaced in 2020. The property is currently appraised with the county at $321,230. Ideal for Investors, flippers, or Renovation financing. If you are a DIYer, this home is your Dream Come True!! ***The School district is LaGrange, but MLS did not offer that option for Elementary, Jr. High, and High School. ***NO OWNER FINANCING or Subto Deals will be considered***

2. 2026-05-03
   historical Active Option 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Investor Special! This 3/2.5/2 home is 1948 square feet and sits on 1.4 acres (4 lots) in the secluded/private community of Clear Lake Pines, covered with towering Pine trees, 7 scenic lakes, and tennis courts. The property also has a separate garage, circle driveway, & storage building. The Trane AC system is less than 5 years old and all the plumbing under the house was replaced in 2020. The property is currently appraised with the county at $321,230. Ideal for Investors, flippers, or Renovation financing. If you are a DIYer, this home is your Dream Come True!! ***The School district is LaGrange, but MLS did not offer that option for Elementary, Jr. High, and High School. ***NO OWNER FINANCING or Subto Deals will be considered***

3. 2026-04-07
   price $140,000 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Investor Special! This 3/2.5/2 home is 1948 square feet and sits on 1.4 acres (4 lots) in the secluded/private community of Clear Lake Pines, covered with towering Pine trees, 7 scenic lakes, and tennis courts. The property also has a separate garage, circle driveway, & storage building. The Trane AC system is less than 5 years old and all the plumbing under the house was replaced in 2020. The property is currently appraised with the county at $321,230. Ideal for Investors, flippers, or Renovation financing. If you are a DIYer, this home is your Dream Come True!! ***The School district is LaGrange, but MLS did not offer that option for Elementary, Jr. High, and High School. ***NO OWNER FINANCING or Subto Deals will be considered***

4. 2026-02-22
   listed $150,000 New 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Investor Special! This 3/2.5/2 home is 1948 square feet and sits on 1.4 acres (4 lots) in the secluded/private community of Clear Lake Pines, covered with towering Pine trees, 7 scenic lakes, and tennis courts. The property also has a separate garage, circle driveway, & storage building. The Trane AC system is less than 5 years old and all the plumbing under the house was replaced in 2020. The property is currently appraised with the county at $321,230. Ideal for Investors, flippers, or Renovation financing. If you are a DIYer, this home is your Dream Come True!! ***The School district is LaGrange, but MLS did not offer that option for Elementary, Jr. High, and High School. ***NO OWNER FINANCING or Subto Deals will be considered***

5. 1993-09-10
   soldstatus
6. 1984-01-18
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,036 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,036 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,036
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,490
• − Management: −$1,490
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$62
• After-tax cash flow: $1,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Grange ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826100
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,243
• Composite: 37.11/100
• National rank: #4494
• State rank: #300 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,459

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,343 people
• By 2030: 26,940 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 27,898 · +5.9%
• By 2050: 28,623 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 31,155 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 31,557 · +19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hungarian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -42.6pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+59.1 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+42.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.88%
• Current HPI: 218.7015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-03 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $140,000 LERA
• 2026-02-22 Listed $150,000 LERA
• 1993-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,036 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.