310 W Kinchilla St

Bowie, AZ 85605

$45,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 591 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $787/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$165
• Net cashflow: $335/mo
• Annual: $4,017/yr
• Cap rate: 15.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.88%
• DSCR: 2.42
• 1% rule: 1.75%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($787 rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 591 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#237 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bowie Unified District (4171) (rural): math 0% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #433 of 501 in AZ (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bowie Elementary School (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,005 of 1,109 statewide, top 92%, 42 students, 48% FRL); Bowie High School (math 24% / reading 24%, 24 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 78% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $45k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 591 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.