310 W Kinchilla St · Bowie, AZ 85605

$45,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 591 Days on market

Built 1946 3,485 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Single Family residence in the heart of Bowie. Close to Post Office, Public School and Public Pool.

Key facts

• Close to public pool
• 3,485 sq ft lot
• Built 1946

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE
• CLOSE TO PUBLIC SCHOOL
• CLOSE TO PUBLIC POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($787 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#237 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bowie Unified District (4171) (rural): math 0% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #433 of 501 in AZ (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bowie Elementary School (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,005 of 1,109 statewide, top 92%, 42 students, 48% FRL); Bowie High School (math 24% / reading 24%, 24 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 78% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 591 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $45k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 591 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.88%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $26,739
• Equity at exit: $20,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $65,312
• Equity at exit: $31,183

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85605

• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $787 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $386/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$165
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $363

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $360	-5% $348	+0% $335	+5% $322	+10% $309
Rent	-10% $273	-5% $304	+0% $335	+5% $366	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $357	-0.5pp $346	base $335	+0.5pp $323	+1.0pp $311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 591 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 589 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 588 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 587 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 586 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 585 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 583 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 582 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 579 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 578 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 577 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 575 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 573 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 572 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 571 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 570 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 569 DOM
18. 2025-01-14
    price $45,000 99-char remark

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    Single Family residence in the heart of Bowie. Close to Post Office, Public School and Public Pool.

19. 2024-10-21
    listed $48,000 Active 99-char remark

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    Single Family residence in the heart of Bowie. Close to Post Office, Public School and Public Pool.

20. 2008-07-16
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $386 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $386 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$386
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$755
• − Management: −$755
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $3,491
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$838
• After-tax cash flow: $3,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bowie Unified District (4171)
• NCES district ID: 0401330
• Math proficiency: 0% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▲ 21.00%
• Median HH income: $34,411
• Composite: 12.14/100
• National rank: #14580
• State rank: #433 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Bowie

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #237
• US rank: #22324

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bowie, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 728

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 22% White 22%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 61%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $45,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-10-21 Listed $48,000 MLSSAZ
• 2008-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $386 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.