3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,153 sqft ·
Built 2006
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 51 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,050/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$603
Tax + insurance
−$192
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$430
Net cashflow
$824/mo
Annual
$9,893/yr
Cap rate
14.90%
Cash-on-cash
30.72%
DSCR
2.37
1% rule
1.78%
Cash to close
$32,199
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $824 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#363 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
Vineland Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #418 of 472 in NJ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Vineland Senior High School (math 10% / reading 34%, grade F, #346 of 399 statewide, top 88%, 2,780 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 296 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $60k; list at $115k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 4.5% in Vineland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: siding
— Significant wear and tear
Major: roof
— Age indicated
Major: landscaping
— Overgrown and debris-filled
Major: fence
— Needs repair or replacement
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