41 Bay St

Winslow, ME 04901

$233,900B+

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,037 sqft · Built 1860 · MultiFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,289/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,227
• Tax + insurance: −$330
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$691
• Net cashflow: $1,042/mo
• Annual: $12,502/yr
• Cap rate: 11.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.09%
• DSCR: 1.85
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $65,492

Investor read

• This is a 1×2bd/1.0ba + 1×3bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $234k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $521/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $234k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in ME, #937 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+.
• Winslow Schools (town): math 81% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #61 of 112 in ME (top 54%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 42 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $65k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.5% in Winslow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,289/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 1102% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.