627 FM 633

Powell, TX 75144

$210,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,517 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,260/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-391/mo
• Annual: $-4,692/yr
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.98%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (32.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (40.0% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,270 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Kerens ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #495 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 522 units permitted in Navarro County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navarro County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?