627 FM 633 · Powell, TX 75144

$210,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,517 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1969 1.25 ac lot $138/sqft · 24% below area Est $275k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

627 FM 633 offers the best of both worlds - space to spread out and easy access to State Highway 31. Don't miss the opportunity to scratch your inner handyman. Over an acre of space for your bunch to stretch their legs, with 4 bedrooms and an enormous backyard. You'll fall in love with the size of the lot, its quaint location off of FM 633 and the easy trip to points east and west. Shhh, don't tell anyone, but, the stars at night are a sight to behold. As an added bonus, you're less than 15 minutes away from dropping a line in the 3rd largest lake in the State of Texas, Richland Chambers.

Key facts

• Enormous backyard
• 1.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• ENORMOUS BACKYARD
• OVER AN ACRE OF SPACE
• LESS THAN 15 MINUTES TO LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (32.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (40.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,270 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Kerens ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #495 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 522 units permitted in Navarro County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Navarro County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,963 (40.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.98%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,000
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -23.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $30,866
• Equity at exit: $126,865

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $111,643
• Equity at exit: $225,745

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75144

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,368/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,755

Max offer price $140,925

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $210,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-03-25
    listed $215,000 Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    627 FM 633 offers the best of both worlds - space to spread out and easy access to State Highway 31. Don't miss the opportunity to scratch your inner handyman. Over an acre of space for your bunch to stretch their legs, with 4 bedrooms and an enormous backyard. You'll fall in love with the size of the lot, its quaint location off of FM 633 and the easy trip to points east and west. Shhh, don't tell anyone, but, the stars at night are a sight to behold. As an added bonus, you're less than 15 minutes away from dropping a line in the 3rd largest lake in the State of Texas, Richland Chambers.

16. 1964-01-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,368 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,475/yr (+$123/mo · 62.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,368
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,209
• − Management: −$1,209
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$8,594
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,062
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerens ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825530
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,364
• Composite: 30.81/100
• National rank: #6142
• State rank: #495 of 826 in TX

Livability — Powell

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1270
• US rank: #22083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Powell, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,798

Population outlook (Navarro County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,397 people
• By 2030: 48,096 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 47,394 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 46,541 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 44,940 · -7.1%
• By 2100: 42,288 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Navarro

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.7% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+48.8 2012: R+42.4 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.61%
• Current HPI: 236.2915
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $215,000 NTREIS
• 1964-01-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,368 · -28.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.