423 Bertram Hollow Rd

Garrison, KY 41141

$125,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,308/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$353
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $25/mo
• Annual: $298/yr
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.13%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($298/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#465 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Greenup County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #118 of 165 in KY (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in Greenup County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greenup County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.