423 Bertram Hollow Rd · Garrison, KY 41141

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2023 1.47 ac lot $75/sqft · 38% below area Est $203k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Private setting meets modern living at 423 Bertram Hollow. This 2023 Clayton Appalachia home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and 1,680 square feet of well-designed space on 1.47 acres. Inside, the open layout features two living areas and a spacious dining area, giving you flexibility for entertaining, relaxing, or everyday living. Natural light fills the home, highlighting the vinyl flooring and large center island that anchors the kitchen. Dark cabinetry, a farmhouse-style sink, and pendant lighting create a clean, updated look. The primary suite includes double vanities, a soaking tub, and a separate shower, offering a comfortable private retreat. Neutral finishes throughout provide a great starting point for your own style. With a little care and attention, this home has the potential to really shine. Outside, the wooded surroundings create a peaceful setting with room to enjoy the outdoors. Offered at $129,900, this land and home package delivers space, layout, and value. Schedule your showing to see the potential in person.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Natural light
• Open layout

Tags

• PRIVATE SETTING
• OPEN LAYOUT
• TWO LIVING AREAS
• SPACIOUS DINING AREA
• NATURAL LIGHT
• VINYL FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($298/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#465 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Greenup County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #118 of 165 in KY (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in Greenup County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greenup County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.13%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,978
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -38.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3567 Leatherwood Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (+11%)	23mo	$194,000	$105	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-18,566
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-13,689
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41141

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,308 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,811/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $60	+0% $25	+5% $-11	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-27	+0% $25	+5% $76	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $57	base $25	+0.5pp $-8	+1.0pp $-41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    listed $129,900 Active 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    Private setting meets modern living at 423 Bertram Hollow. This 2023 Clayton Appalachia home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and 1,680 square feet of well-designed space on 1.47 acres. Inside, the open layout features two living areas and a spacious dining area, giving you flexibility for entertaining, relaxing, or everyday living. Natural light fills the home, highlighting the vinyl flooring and large center island that anchors the kitchen. Dark cabinetry, a farmhouse-style sink, and pendant lighting create a clean, updated look. The primary suite includes double vanities, a soaking tub, and a separate shower, offering a comfortable private retreat. Neutral finishes throughout provide a great starting point for your own style. With a little care and attention, this home has the potential to really shine. Outside, the wooded surroundings create a peaceful setting with room to enjoy the outdoors. Offered at $129,900, this land and home package delivers space, layout, and value. Schedule your showing to see the potential in person.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,811 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,811 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,811
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$405
• After-tax cash flow: $703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenup County
• NCES district ID: 2102400
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,526
• Composite: 24.33/100
• National rank: #7702
• State rank: #118 of 165 in KY

Livability — Garrison

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #465
• US rank: #23229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,516

Population outlook (Greenup County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,374 people
• By 2030: 33,145 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 30,407 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 27,702 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 21,970 · -36.1%
• By 2100: 16,670 · -51.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Greek 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greenup

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.1% · R 74.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.4pp toward R · 2008: -14.1pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+45.1 2016: R+45.5 2012: R+18.6 2008: R+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.79%
• Current HPI: 218.0274
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $129,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+61.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,811 · +7497.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.