1231 Rotherman

Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$75,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 2012 · Other · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,575/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$2
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $701/mo
• Annual: $8,411/yr
• Cap rate: 17.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.05%
• DSCR: 2.78
• 1% rule: 2.10%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $701 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rebecca Creek El (math 55% / reading 52%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 605 students, 51% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.