1231 Rotherman · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$75,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Other · 42 Days on market

Built 2012 10,149 sqft lot $84/sqft · 69% below area $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great .25 acres lot near Canyon Lake. Tamarac Shore has a private lake side park and a neighborhood amenity center with a pool.

Key facts

• Private boat ramp
• Lake access
• Fast growing area

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• UTILITIES ALREADY ONSITE
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• LAKE ACCESS
• NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
• FAST GROWING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual HOA fee of $21; Association transfer fee of $150; Community amenities include waterfront access, pool, park/playground, jogging trails, and bike trails

Exterior

• Utilities: Water system; Aerobic septic
• Home design: Pre-owned home; Subdivision: Tamarack Shores
• Construction: Approximately 14 years old; Vinyl exterior; Composition roof; Other foundation (see remarks)
• Exterior features: County view; Mature trees; Canyon Lake proximity; Street is paved

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen about 11 x 9
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom about 15 x 12 (other features — see remarks); Second bedroom about 10 x 11
• Flooring: Other flooring (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom has no tub or shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat
• Interior features: Living/dining room combination; All window coverings remain; One living area
• Laundry & utility: Utility room about 5 x 3

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $701 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rebecca Creek El (math 55% / reading 52%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 605 students, 51% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.05%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,450
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -69.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $27,913
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $64,110
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,403/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $688

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1256 Lonesome Canyon Lake, TX	1.0	1.0	691	$1,495	$2.16	1d	1	1.37mi
1375 Canyon Trce Unit B Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	1.5	896	$1,450	$1.62	1d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    listed $75,000 New 766-char remark
15. 2025-10-17
    historical
16. 2025-06-18
    price $89,000
17. 2025-04-19
    listed $95,000 New
18. 2023-12-20
    soldstatus
19. 2023-12-20
    soldstatus
20. 2009-04-20
    soldstatus
21. 2009-04-02
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Great .25 acres lot near Canyon Lake. Tamarac Shore has a private lake side park and a neighborhood amenity center with a pool.

22. 2009-03-11
    historical

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Great .25 acres lot near Canyon Lake. Tamarac Shore has a private lake side park and a neighborhood amenity center with a pool.

23. 2008-01-22
    listed $6,000

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Great .25 acres lot near Canyon Lake. Tamarac Shore has a private lake side park and a neighborhood amenity center with a pool.

24. 1980-09-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,403
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $7,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,846
• After-tax cash flow: $6,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1150.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $75,000 LERA
• 2025-10-17 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $89,000 LERA
• 2025-04-19 Listed $95,000 LERA
• 2023-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-04-02 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2009-03-11 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2008-01-22 Listed $6,000 LERA
• 1980-09-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,403 · +46.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.