5 Downer Ln

Zena, NY 12498

$1,200,000F

2 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,172 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,688/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax + insurance: −$2,804
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$775
• Net cashflow: $-6,184/mo
• Annual: $-74,203/yr
• Cap rate: 0.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -22.08%
• DSCR: 0.02
• 1% rule: 0.31%
• Cash to close: $336,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-74k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $422k (64.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $369k (69.3% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.18M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $369k (69.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#966 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kingston City School District (urban): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #355 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: E R Crosby Elementary School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 303 students, 61% FRL); M Clifford Miller Middle School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #566 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 822 students, 65% FRL); Kingston High School (math 94% / reading 91%, grade A+, #153 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 1,856 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 45% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $1.20M implies a 6300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.